theglobaljournal.net: Latest articles of Pamela Taylor

UN Warns Austerity Pushing World into Recession

2011-12-21T12:31:00Z

“The world stands on the brink of a double-dip recession and a ‘lost decade’ for many countries,” according to a year-end policy brief by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report noted that developed nations attending the G-20 summit in Cannes (November 3-4) recognized this but have nevertheless continued with austerity policies that “point precisely in the wrong direction.” If such measures continue, UNCTAD warned, Europe will plunge into full-fledged recession in 2012 while the best that the US and Japan can look forward to is a period of stagnation.

UNCTAD economist Heiner Flassbeck accused governments around the world of ignoring the lessons of the 1930s when it was widely accepted that the second downturn of 1937-38 “was induced in part by the decision to tighten up fiscal policy too early in the recovery.” Flassbeck warned that the same scenario risks being repeated today if new policy approaches are not taken.

First and foremost, the UNCTAD brief recommends that “countries threatened by recession and deflation should avoid intensified austerity measures. Instead they should implement measures to increase domestic demand and employment." This could be done, the UN organization says, by seeing fiscal policy as a tool for growth and development much as the corporate sector does. Instead of asking whether deficits are too big, countries should consider how they could be used to stimulate the economy.

In other words, an expansionary fiscal policy could boost consumer demand and employment by directly stimulating public investment, which would in turn lead to increased private investment. “Social spending in such areas as unemployment benefits, health and housing can also be seen as promoting recovery as they sustain consumption,” the report recommends. Similarly it notes that “tax cuts that benefit lower income households can have a stronger impact on aggregate demand than cuts aimed at high-income households.”

The problem with using deficit cutting measures to regain market confidence, according to Flassbeck, is that governments are simply too big. “They are just too big to cut their expenditure and expect that their revenues will remain as they were before. They will not… Revenues will fall and with falling revenues you will see that you cannot reduce a deficit. And if you cannot reduce a deficit, you cannot regain confidence. So, the whole idea is flawed from the very beginning.”

Finally, the report noted that developed countries cannot expect emerging nations such as Brazil and China to save the day, because if the US, Europe and Japan (which represent 70% of the world economy) all slow their growth at the same time, emerging nations will follow suit.

(Photo © Heiner Flassbeck, UNCTAD Director of Globalization and Development Strategies)

Climate Accords At Risk from Vested Interests

2011-12-21T10:27:09Z

The UN’s climate change panel (IPCC) has warned that if measures are not taken to lower global CO2 emissions between 50 and 85% by the year 2050, it will be too late to halt the rise of the earth’s average temperature above the 2 degree Celsius mark.

The question remains: how strong is the political will to heed this warning - despite the last-minute agreement reached in Durban (December 11) by nearly 200 countries to adopt a legal agreement on climate change by 2015 which won’t go into effect until 2020?

The accord that was finally reached at the end of the week-long conference is largely a stop-gap measure designed to keep the current 1997 Kyoto protocol in effect until a new agreement is adopted.

The good news is that - unlike Kyoto - the Durban deal would put all countries, including the world’s top emitters - China, India, Brazil and the US - under the same legal regime to enforce commitments made to control greenhouse gases.

The bad news is that there are indications that some countries are dragging their feet. The day after Durban ended, Canada announced it will no longer abide by Kyoto although it will honor its pledge for a new accord by 2020.

“We don’t expect other countries to follow suit,” said Jonathan Lynn, director of communications at IPCC in Geneva. “Canada was clearly concerned that under Kyoto they would have to pay a penalty and that’s why they’ve withdrawn.” Rather than reduce greenhouse gases as promised under Kyoto, levels have risen by more than 4% largely due to Canada’s embrace of tar sand mining, resulting in an enormous fine.

Pressure from coal and oil lobbies is also compromising efforts to go green in the US and other industrialized countries. While the Obama administration tries to encourage investment in renewable energies by granting tens of billions in special subsidies, oil and gas production has boomed thanks to private investment.

Both the IPCC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted that many of the studies denying that human activity plays a major role in global warming are funded by coal and oil interests.

“Some of this funding does come from vested interests,” said WMO spokeswoman Claire Nullis. She cited a recent study by scientists from the University of Berkley - funded by the coal industry - that disputed the WMO graphs about warming temperatures. However, the move backfired: “They came up with very similar findings and that has caused a lot of unhappiness - to put it mildly - among those who would deny that global warming is taking place and that it is human-induced.”

(Photo © M. Molendyke)

Syrian Dissident Says Assad Regime on Verge of Collapse

2011-12-16T10:50:10Z

Renowned Syrian dissident lawyer and judge, 80-year old Haitham Maleh, believes the continuing brutality of President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, which has led to a death toll of over 5,000, is a sign that the regime is on the point of collapse. Maleh spoke with The Global Journal during a stopover in Geneva (December 7) where he was scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton following her private meeting with opposition leaders of the Syrian National Council.

Stated Maleh, "In the end I was only able to speak with one of Mrs. Clinton’s aides for about 15 minutes, but I gave him a letter outlining my concerns. Mainly this included putting pressure on Arab nations that have not closed their embassies in Damascus to do so, such as Oman and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). We are asking that pressure also be put on former East bloc countries to follow the lead of other EU countries and withdraw their ambassadors. Even though they may not have significant ties to Syria, the gesture would help to isolate the Assad regime. I also asked that measures be taken to make military movements by the regime more difficult."

Including intervention by NATO such as was done in Libya, in the name of protecting citizens?

- I do not agree with NATO intervention. I am not recommending air attacks or the introduction of foreign troops but rather other measures that were used in Libya such as disrupting electronic communications, especially in offshore shipping lanes.

What is your reaction to the interview President Assad gave to a US television network in which he denied being responsible for killing and ordering a brutal crackdown on his people?

- In this interview, Bashar Al-Assad appeared to be afraid and tried to distance himself from the crimes committed by his soldiers. But, according to the Syrian constitution he is responsible because he is in charge of the military and he is the head of the executive branch. So how can he say that he is not responsible? This is a sign of his weakness and his regime being on the verge of collapse.

Are you at all concerned that the US and the rest of the free world - in opposing the Assad regime - might be hastening the day when extremist Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood might gain power and impose Shari’a law on Syria?

- The Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed for some time in Syria but those who speak for it in exile say the movement has abandoned its calls for violent resistance and for the application of Shari’a law or for a Sunni uprising against the Alawites (ruling minority). Our laws today are not according to Shari’a and I don’t believe most Syrians want that for the future. They want democratic change - to be able to choose their own leaders.

But aren’t you concerned that asking for support from the US could give the wrong message to the Arab world?

- The Syrian people, like all Arabs, thought President Obama’s Cairo speech in 2009 was a big first step. We are now asking him to follow up on his beautiful words with concrete actions. The US remains an important world leader despite its historic support for dictatorships throughout the Middle East. It is speaking forcefully about encouraging democratic movements around the world. But frankly, the role of the EU is more important for us. It has more economic pressure it can apply and it has already reacted forcefully at the UN. Also, I have given the EU 200 names of Syrian individuals who attacked and killed their own people and so far 60 have been delivered to the ICC (International Criminal Court).

Why were you not included in the talks with Syrian National Council leaders here in Geneva? What do you think of them?

- I am not a member of their Council. Most of them have lived outside Syria for years and have foreign citizenship. They did nothing during the decade 1980 to 1990 when over 50,000 people were imprisoned. Syria is one vast prison.

You have a certain reputation as a leading dissident opposed to the Assad regimes over the past 50 years and you were imprisoned several times. Tell us about that.

- I was first arrested by Hafez al-Assad in 1980 and jailed for 6 years. Then I was again arrested, this time by his son Bashar, during the street demonstrations of October 2009. I was imprisoned for another 3 years. In July this year, I was ‘invited’ to discuss my situation with the authorities after being released under an amnesty extended to prisoners over 70 years old. There are more than 10,000 political prisoners in Syria today. On the day I was scheduled to meet with the regime, I managed to flee the country through Turkey.

So are you now seeking asylum in Switzerland or anywhere else?

- Never. I am Syrian and my place is in my country with my people.

Mountains Ignored at Durban But Look Out Rio+20

2011-12-13T14:27:18Z

Although the loss of mountain forests and glacier ice was not on the agenda at the Durban conference on climate change that ended December 11th, advocates are determined it will be on the agenda of the Rio+20 climate talks in June 2012.

“The big story at Durban is that Kyoto (the 1997 climate accord) will not die on January 1st but will go on until 2015,” said Jan Dusik, European regional director for UNEP (UN Environmental Program) which co-hosted The World Mountain Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier. However, Dusik said he regretted that UNEP’s report on glacier and mountain degradation was not part of the Durban agenda.

“Perhaps the image of islands disappearing into the ocean is more dramatic than images of melting glaciers,” he said. “We want the same recognition for the plight of people living in and depending on mountains.”

“We all live downstream,” noted mountaineer and photographer David Breashears of GlacierWorks added. “We all depend on water run-off from glaciers into mountain streams, lakes and rivers.”

Breashears said his 45 expeditions in the Himalayas and five Everest ascents have convinced him that the loss of mountain forests and glaciers will have worldwide impact if it continues unchecked. “Especially in Asia where the Tibetan plateau provides water for 40% of the world’s population and glacier run-off feeds the rivers flowing into China, India and Pakistan.”

Asked whether the glacier melt is due to historical cycles or the effect of humans on the environment, Breashears said, “Of course there are natural cycles but we know humans are also having an impact…and we can’t continue to vilify energy companies. They are simply responding to what we’re asking for.”

Another speaker at the Verbier Forum was Jean Bourliaud of the French advocacy group APMM (Association des Populations des Montagnes du Monde). “I’m a Chamonix guide but have done many treks in the Andes where there has been even more mountain and glacier degradation. In the next 40-50 years there will be no more glaciers there. This is an especially severe problem where cities depend on glacier run-off like Santiago de Chile.”

The World Mountain Forum was hosted by UNEP in partnership with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). Similar events to mark International Mountain Day (December 11) were held in Canada, Peru and Nepal with the goal of highlighting the social and economic effects of melting glaciers in the world’s four biggest mountain ranges: the Andes, Himalayas, Alps and Rockies.

The Rome-based Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) also held a ceremony (December 12) to mark the day under the theme “Mountain forests – roots to our future.”

(Photos Mount Everest in 1921 and 2007 © George Mallory courtesy of the Royal Geographical Society / David Breashears for GlacierWorks)

Clinton Addresses a Last Human Rights Taboo

2011-12-07T12:50:36Z

While US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met privately with members of the Syrian National Council at a hotel in Geneva (December 6), journalists were diverted to the nearby UN headquarters to await what was billed as a major human rights speech by the American official. Would it be about Syria? Burma? US officials weren’t saying.

If the journalists could have been in two places at once they might have gotten a hint in Clinton’s comments to the Syrian opposition leaders. Speaking to the National Council, she said "a democratic transition is not just the overthrow of the Assad regime. It means setting Syria on the path of the rule of law and protecting the universal rights of all citizens regardless of sect or ethnicity or gender."

To the surprise of many in her captive audience of diplomats, human rights advocates and students who had undergone an hour-long security check over at the UN, gender was the mysterious human rights issue she wished to address – but gender as in LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual & Transgender).

“Raising this issue, I know, is sensitive for many people,” Clinton said. “Like being a woman, like being a racial, religious, tribal, or ethnic minority, being LGBT does not make you less human. And that is why gay rights are human rights, and human rights are gay rights."

So sensitive was the concern of State Department officials about the reaction of some countries that are members of the Geneva-based Human Rights Council that the subject of her speech was treated as a state secret until she delivered it.

Clinton called on UN member countries to be on the right side of history and recognize that human rights are not culturally specific but universal as specified in the 60-year old Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

“Some seem to believe it (LGBT) is a Western phenomenon, and therefore people outside the West have grounds to reject it. Well, in reality, gay people are born into and belong to every society in the world. They are all ages, all races, all faiths; they are doctors and teachers, farmers and bankers, soldiers and athletes; and whether we know it, or whether we acknowledge it, they are our family, our friends, and our neighbors.”

(Photo © Eric Bridiers / State Department)

Durban Take Heed: The Earth is Heating Up

2011-11-30T08:58:28Z

There is no question that the earth is warming up and that it is due to human activity, according to the report delivered to the UN Climate Change conference that opened in Durban, South Africa (November 28). The results of the report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were made public simultaneously in Durban and Geneva.

WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said the role of his organization is “to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers…Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

Global temperatures in 2011 were said to be the tenth highest since the start of records in 1850. This was despite the weather phenomenon known as La Niña which has a cooling and drying influence – as versus El Niño which causes excessive rainfall, floods and rising tides. The 13 warmest years have all occurred in the 15 years since 1997, the report notes.

Many scientists believe that warmer weather and warmer water is driven by carbon emissions which cause global warming during certain years in which there are large El Niño events. Strong La Niña years typically bring between 0.10° to 0.15°C cooler temperatures than preceding and following years.

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs," said Jarreau, adding that average global temperatures are rapidly approaching levels consistent with a rise of 2.4°C. “Scientists believe (this) could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said. The extent of Artic sea ice in 2011 was the second lowest on record and its volume was also the lowest.

The WMO report was provisional in that it only measured the period January-October 2011 during which time the combined sea and land air temperature was 0.41°C above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C.

Jarraud said scientists have noticed that “weak La Niña conditions have re-developed in recent weeks but have not yet approached the intensity of those in late 2010 and early 2011.” Climate disasters during this 10 month period included severe drought in Africa, major floods in Pakistan, Central and South America, extreme weather events in the US and unusually dry periods in Europe and eastern China.

How much of an impact the WMO report will have on the complex deliberations in Durban is difficult to gauge but at least the conferees cannot say they didn’t know.

(Photo © DR)

Climate Change Affects World Security

2011-11-28T12:00:00Z

The week before the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change talks open in Durban, South Africa, UN Secretary Ban ki-Moon told the Security Council (November 23) that climate change should be treated as a threat to global security.

“Climate change has the potential to reduce the availability of food and water, threaten biodiversity, raise sea levels, and disrupt weather patterns, exposing all of us to greater risk. Many regions of the world will be vulnerable to more intense and longer droughts, putting lives and livelihoods in peril.

In his address to the Security Council, UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres echoed the appeal, warning that "The process of climate change and its role in reinforcing other global imbalances constitutes an important threat to peace and security.”

Instead of focusing on how many people might be displaced by climate change he said, “we should be addressing the more complex issue of the way in which global warming, rising sea levels, changing weather patterns and other manifestations of climate change are interacting with, and reinforcing, other global imbalances, so as to produce some very powerful drivers of instability, conflict and displacement."

Ban ki-Moon singled out the United States by reminding that Washington has reaffirmed the important role of the Durban climate change talks (November 28-December) adding, “We are committed to working with all countries to achieve a balanced and comprehensive outcome at the Framework Convention negotiations in Durban.”

The US Ambassador and Alternate Representative to the UN, Jeffrey DeLaurentis, responded that the US is also “committed to working with all countries to achieve a balanced and comprehensive outcome at the Framework Convention negotiations in Durban.”

However, doubts about the outcome of the climate change talks are already being raised in many quarters. Will the soon-to-expire Kyoto Protocol, committing nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to at least five percent below 1990 levels, be renewed? Will nations accept a proposed Green Climate Fund to deliver billions of dollars from richer nations to poorer ones through carbon credits?

The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly thrown a wrench into the works by failing to agree (November 24) to key aspects of a pledge by rich nations to provide $100 billion a year in climate cash by 2020, to be managed by the Green Climate Fund.

(Photo © DR)

World Bank Index Shows Progress in Africa/Eastern Europe

2011-11-24T09:31:06Z

The regulatory atmosphere for local entrepreneurs trying to start a business was made easier around the world in 2010-2011 with the greatest improvement found in several African and Eastern European countries.

The World Bank presented its annual Doing Business report at a conference in Geneva (November 23) under the title Doing business in a more transparent world. The report surveyed 183 countries from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe comparing the regulatory environments on matters such as property rights, start-up loans, construction permits and taxes. The indices show that reforms made in the past five years in 85% of world economies made it easier to for domestic entrepreneurs to do business.

When asked why the improved regulatory indices around the world had so far had little impact on improving economies and the jobless situation, Augusto Lopez-Claros, Director of Global Indicators and Analysis at the World Bank said only that the report did not include macro economic issues.

The current crisis in Eurozone countries, he said, is due to “poor management of public finances over the last 20 years." As for the US, which remains in the number four position on the Doing Business index, he said that it clearly “fails at the macro level with deficit problems creating a business atmosphere comparable to an emerging country.”

The report’s most positive results were in some unexpected places. “In Sub-Saharan Africa, 78% of the economies have adopted regulatory reforms,” said Lopez-Claros, adding that 88% of countries in Eastern Europe and Central have done the same.

Rwanda and Georgia were singled out for special mention. Rwanda’s Ambassador to the UN Mission in Geneva, Soline Nyirahabimana, said the World Bank report proves that there is something worthy evolving in Rwanda that she hoped would lead to foreign investment in her country.

Georgia’s representative in Geneva, Tina Bokuchava, said that while such reports provided excellent incentives for countries to reform their regulatory structures, what's more important is for governments to have the ‘political will’ to make changes. Georgia was rife with corruption, she said, until the current government "came to power with a mandate of change, of comprehensive reform, and in eight years Georgia has turned into a regional laboratory of reform and a global leader in economic reform".

The report noted that the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) did not do so well, although it said China continues to make progress.

The results of the report will be available on a new website permitting businesses and governments to compare and exchange information. “We call it the virtue of transparency,” said Lopez-Claros. “A minister in a given country can look at our data and say ‘hey, I didn’t know it was so complicated to get a permit (in his own country)'."

(Photo © DR)

Asia Pacific Trade Deal Rivals Doha Round

2011-11-16T08:08:06Z

Leaders of 12 countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have agreed on the broad outlines of an ambitious free trade accord for promoting innovation and growth to kick-start world economies.

The TPP agreement was announced (November 12) at a meeting hosted by US President Barack Obama at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Honolulu who has made it a cornerstone of a US free-trade initiative.

“I want to emphasize that the Asia-Pacific region is absolutely critical to America’s economic growth,” Obama told summit leaders, adding that it was a top priority for the US “because we’re not going to be able to put our folks back to work and grow our economy and expand opportunity unless the Asia-Pacific region is also successful.”

When created in 2006, the TPP numbered only four members (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore), then there were nine and by the end of the summit 11 had agreed to join the US: Australia, Singapore, Peru, Brunei, Chile, Vietnam, Malaysia, New Zealand, Japan, Mexico and Canada.

Although a member of APEC, the world’s largest economy, China, did not join the TPP although President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao held talks on the sidelines of the Honolulu conference.

The agreement announced by the TPP countries, which account for almost 40 percent of the global economy, is an attempt to inject momentum into liberalization hopes that have become bogged down after inconclusive talks by the 153-member WTO (World Trade Organization) known as the Doha round which are about to enter their 11th year with no end in sight.

“Today’s announcement is an important milestone," New Zealand's Deputy Prime Minister Bill English said. "It signals the broad outlines of the agreement – including progressive tariff elimination and an end point of full market access – and a strong political commitment from leaders".

“Following Japan’s decision to seek to join the TPP, this creates a real sense of momentum around negotiations. Our message to our negotiators is that we want to convert that momentum into results,” Mr English says.

TPP negotiators will meet again in early December and have been instructed to schedule further negotiating rounds for 2012.

Innovation No Longer the Prerogative of High-Income Countries

2011-11-15T11:06:34Z

The role of entrepreneurs in finding innovative ways to turn creativity and ingenuity into new products and new technologies was heralded at two separate events in Geneva as crucial to driving future economic growth.

Geneva was one of 123 cities around the world to host events and activities for young entrepreneurs celebrating Global Entrepreneurship Week (November 14-18) with a focus on encouraging green and social business ideas.

Keynote Speaker, Betty King, the US Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, made a strong pitch for what she called disruptive innovators, those whose ideas were born in a garage yet transformed the world.

“The late Steve Jobs was an incredible ‘disruptive innovator’," said King. “The iPod and iPhone created new markets, stimulating a boom of innovation and imitation around these path-breaking innovations. Because of disruptive innovation, we can travel faster, work smarter and stay connected in ways previously unthinkable.”

At a separate conference few doors away, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) released its annual report on “The Changing Face of Innovation” which noted that WIPO is facing a growing demand for patent protection from entrepreneurs around the world.

Traditional technology innovators like the US, Japan, France, Germany and the UK may still file the most patent requests and account for 70 percent of global research and development spending but the geography of innovation has shifted with a surge in applications from China, India and Brazil.

“Innovation is no longer the prerogative of high-income countries,” said WIPO Director-General Francis Gurry, adding that “the technological gap between richer and poorer countries is narrowing.”

The increase in patent applications over recent decades has created a backlog of pending applications with a current wait of an average of two and a half years. WIPO chief economist, Carsten Fink, noted that this has had a discouraging effect on many young entrepreneurs.

But according to Francis Gurry, countries like China and India that have recently joined the rush for patent protection realize that “a patent doesn’t allow anyone the right to do anything. It only stops others from doing something.”